My PhD student Miguel Velasco pointed out this morning that the Intrade prediction market far outperformed opinion polls in prediction the overall election 2008 results. Take a look at this snapshot from Yahoo. The polls predicted Indiana and NC to go red, but the market got it right (in that they went left:-)
Showing posts with label prediction markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction markets. Show all posts
November 06, 2008
Election 2008 -- Polls v prediction markets -- the latter won hands down
My PhD student Miguel Velasco pointed out this morning that the Intrade prediction market far outperformed opinion polls in prediction the overall election 2008 results. Take a look at this snapshot from Yahoo. The polls predicted Indiana and NC to go red, but the market got it right (in that they went left:-)
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