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Video – Ravi Bapna | Carlson School

Video – Ravi Bapna | Carlson School

SCECR Haiku

Datasets creative large
No causation without correlation
Effect not artifact

Tis' the season

Its the time of the year when WISE (Workshop on Information Systems Economics) rolls along. This year we celebrate its 20th anniversary at the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix. I've never missed a WISE meeting since I graduated from my PhD program at Connecticut. So thats 10 in a row now!

The main theme for WISE over the years has been to uncover the economic value created by IT in business, and to a lesser extent (some of us hope to change that), in society. If I had to point to one source where this collective wisdom is made accessible to all its the new book titled Wired for Innovation by Erik Brynjolfsson (MIT) and Adam Saunders (Wharton). Its a great read and future CEMBA students can expect it to be assigned as pre-class reading.

Among the interesting themes in the book is the notion that traditional national income accounting methods (think GDP calculations) woefully underestimate the value created by digital goods and platforms. A couple of interesting examples from the book - if you buy a $1 copy of the NY Times its shows up in the GDP, but if you spend 30 minutes on NYTimes.com, it does not show up. Likewise, whats the value to consumers of better information (say from free Google searches) or newer platforms such as eBay. They cite our Consumer Surplus in Online Auctions paper in the journal Information Systems Research where we demonstrate that in 2003 consumers got close $7 billion in welfare gains from eBay. In contrast, their revenues, which would have showed up in that year's GDP was $2.1 billion!

On a personal note, our above-mentioned paper was selected as one of five best IS papers by a committee of senior scholars. Regretably, neither me nor my co-authors (Galit Shmueli and Wolfgang Jank) will be at ICIS 2009 to receive this in person.

Off to Phoenix and then to warm India tomorrow!

Happy holidays to all and peace on earth.

Co-authors blogging..

Its nice to have co-authors blogging about joint work. Here is a link to Nishtha's post on our recent study measuring returns to human capital investments in the offshore industry.

Dial M for Mackerel..

The competition for rural India targeted information services is heating up with Nokia joining ITC eChoupal, Reliance and the Tatas. As I mention in this recent Wall St. Journal article with a catchy title "Dial M for Mackerel..." this is good news for the Indian farmer, and yet another chapter in the success of India's mobile telecoms story.

However, newer companies venturing into this tough tough market (think illiteracy meets fragmented land-holdings meets high price sensitivity) should be prepared to be in it for the long haul. Even in the best of circumstances, IT yields supermodular returns only when accompanied with the the necessary organizational complements (say process redesign accompanying an enterprise wide ERP implementation). Not only have the incumbent players (eChoupal) for instance invested heavily in developing the necessary societal complements (a "sanchalak" or a "human counselor" in every village plays a critical role in overcoming techno-socio barriers), the newer entrants will face the familiar chicken and egg problem of simultaneously growing a substantial user base and leveraging that data to offer highly personalized services.

Anyway, makes for an interesting space to watch...

Mumbai...Bleakness

I came in to work this morning to catch up on mutliple things, but its hard to focus on anything when once considers that the seige in Mumbai is now into its third day! Much has been said already, so I don't need to rehash anything. I was particularly struck this morning by a moving piece by Sambit Bal, editor of Cricinfo.com.  He writes, 

"...I have watched a city of a million dreams held hostage by 20 or so men who have purged from their souls every trace of humanity - let's not confer on them the dignity of a religion - and I have felt the blood drain out of me...."

Go home Kevin P and company. Perhaps, one day, there will be another innings that will make more sense...

On leadership -- from the land of Gross National Happiness

"“Destiny has put me here. I will protect you as a parent, care for you as a brother and serve you as a son. I shall give you everything and keep nothing. This is how I shall serve you as King.”

Jigme Khesar Namgyei Wangchuck, V King of Bhutan, (on his coronation)

Something for all world leaders, including President Obama, to think about...

ISB Alums Innovating at Google India

Last week I was pleasantly surprised to pick up a link from Manik Gupta's Gmail page to his post announcing Google's mapping of India. Manik is one of those exemplary alums that ISB should be proud to have. He really understood the true essence of a business school education. One that goes beyond GPAs and placements (well, Google is not a bad landing;-), but really involves soaking in the educational experience in a broader sense. 

I must admit Google India maps was of immense use to me when I had my Hyderabadi driver (never been North of AP) take my father's car back to Jaipur just prior to our move to Minneapolis. I could literally show him our house around the corner from Moti Dungri, across from the beautiful Birla Temple, on the map.

Not to be outdone, this morning I got an email from Alok Goel, another proud ISBian and former president of the Biz Tech Club at ISB. The official Google India blog features his latest product, an SMS based search service. 

Part of my motivation for posting this is to express my disappointment at the shrinking enrollments in the IT courses at ISB. People who are passiionate about technology seem, naturally, to be burnt out by the four-five years they spend dealing with global delivery model. Long hours, distance (not just physical) from the clients and life in the trenches can be expected to take their toll. The natural inclination is to look for careers in i-Banking, consulting and marketing, which in of itself is a justifiable exit strategy from a B-School.

The paradox however is that overall supply of jobs for ISB graduates in these areas has never been greater than the demand, and a significant number of ISBians end up back in the technology sector, in roles that befit their enhanced profiles. Of the set that go back to the IT sector, there are those that believe that their prior experience is enough to carry them through should their i-banking-consulting preference elude them. There are others like Manik and Alok, who, after some soul-searching and wine tasting, recognize where their true passion is and work expressly towards that goal. They take relevant IT electives, engage with the relevant centers and dialogue woth the plethora of industry leaders that stream through Gachibowli.

In anticipation of this, our strategy has been to offer IT electives that expressly cater towards studnets looking to chart careers in the innovative aspects of this sector. These inlcude, but are not limited to, product innovation in networked Web 2.0 businesses (a great course developed and refined by Prof Amit Mehra, but which sadly may have to disappear next year due to low demand), business intelligence/data mining, global sourcing and financial valuations of tech. businesses.

The optimist in me hopes that it is a matter of time that this message sinks in, but are their aspects of the stroy I'm missing out? Do voice your frank opinions on this...

Election 2008 -- Polls v prediction markets -- the latter won hands down

My PhD student Miguel Velasco pointed out this morning that the Intrade prediction market far outperformed opinion polls in prediction the overall election 2008 results. Take a look at this snapshot from Yahoo. The polls predicted Indiana and NC to go red, but the market got it right (in that they went left:-)

To play around with this interesting dashboard go to http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

On Sam...

In class group discussion on whether Walmart should offer it's slick logistics and vendor managed inventory as a platform to others ( a la Amazon);

Group that is against this - " What would Sam say?" NO!

Group that is for it - Guess what, Sam's dead:-)

Down Economies -- IT Spending

I begin teaching in the executive MBA program at Carlson today. I look forward to spending the next couple of months with this impressive mix of 60 odd (ok, 52 to be precise:-) Twin Cities executives from all walks of business. The question is somewhat timeless -- IT spending continues to rise worldwide, yet as many firms fail to drive value from these as those that do! 

Interestingly, a new article from Mckinsley Quarterly dwells on what firms should do with respect to IT spending in downturns. Some interesting excerpts:

"CIOs, of course, should continue to make their operations more efficient and to reduce costs, especially in areas that show signs of bloat."

"Still, except in the most dire circumstances, turning off technology investments during a downturn is counterproductive. When business picks up, you may lack critical capabilities..."

"Few companies have successfully capitalized on the explosion of data in recent years. Often this information, residing in separate IT systems or spread across different business units, has never been mined for insights that could add value. "

Not surprisngly the three pillars of our course are:

1. How to manage IT to keep the lights on and continously reduce costs while improving service?
2. How to leverage corporate data for business inteliigence?
3. How to use IT to play offense and innovate?

Look forward to the hearing your views on this.

From One Twin Cities to Another

We (the family) are getting ready to move to Minneapolis where I'll be joining the faculty at the Carlson School of Management at the U of M (as they call it, or if you are from Minnesota just plainly the "U"). Two years have flown by at the ISB and (through what I must admit was some very broad minded thinking by the U of M and ISB administration) I'm glad that I'll continue to direct CITNE, our fledgling research centre at the ISB.

Perceivably, this is a move against the tides. Away from the emerging lands of opportunity. Someday I'll get into the details of why and what prompted these moves. Something probably every US grown Indian academic considers doing (I think the broader immigrant reverse migration story has a different narration than our narrow segment of academics) at some stage.

As of now, I'm getting a rousing farewell. Four of my Mayo friends and their families are descending into the Twin Cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad starting tomorrow morning. Looking forward to a fun weekend!

ISB Ranks 20th in FT's 2008 Global MBA Ranking

Predictably, there has been a lot of buzz in the Indian media around the 20th place global ranking the ISB MBA has received. One question that is openly being asked is where are the IIMs? Did they not participate? Can they make it? Interesting questions all.

One of the joys of working at ISB is that we get the Financial Times delivered to us (via Mumbai and two days late) in our offices and hallways. To me the FT Weekend edition is worth it's weight in gold, by far the best newspaper reading in the world. At a broader level, it signals ISB's global mindset. Barring a couple of visits to IIM-B I've never stepped foot on any other IIM. So I'll let them speak for themselves.

At the ISB, one does get the feeling of being in the new India, one that is at ease with itself, but also intricately embedded in the global economy. We shift effortlessly between chai and samosas to measuring consumer surplus in eBay auctions worldwide (see the New York Times' recent coverage of our paper forthcoming in the premier peer-reviewed journal Information Systems Research or ISR, as we call it). Incidentally ISR is one the 40 journals that the Financial Times counts in the research component of its ranking. Research has a significant 10% weight in FT's scheme of things, and yes ISB has a long way to go on that (and we sure have our set of issues, but that is fodder for another chow) given the small number of our resident faculty size, but top-tier research is something that ISB cares about. Like in many US research oriented B-Schools 'publish or perish' is the mantra that rules the lives of the tenure-track ISB resident faculty.

Speaking of the components of the ranking, the DNA newspaper today quotes IIM-A director Sameer Barua as saying "the FT has ranked ISB on the basis of statistics of salaries give by them." The comment is troubling in more ways than one. The FT ranking methodology is by far the most open of all major international rankings. Anyone can view it at http://rankings.ft.com/pdf/key/global-mba-rankings.pdf, and Prof. Barua certainly needs to be pointed to it.

Salary rated components make up about 40% of the overall weight. Significant, but not the sole criteria. What bothers me more is the use of the phrase "by them." The first thing that FT looks at is whether the numbers given have been audited by KPMG or not?

Meanwhile, I missed the celebrations on Monday collecting data for some new research in Mumbai. Neverthless, rumour has it that a few more parties are forthcoming and that there is a new out-there "lounge" on the campus, and it also has a watering hole that is open beyond Sarovar's 10pm curfew at the EH. So the journey continues.

Party hard and work harder...

RB

On platforms: A marraige between social networks and online auctions!

Have been discovering the wonders of Facebook recently (http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=699296175) and am amazed by it's ability to serve as a platform. Case in point is Mosoma, an online auction application that sits on the underlying social network. My colleagues Arun Sundararajan (NYU Stern) and Alok Gupta (Carlson School, U Minnesota) conceptualized such a platform about a year ago, but being what we are - academics - never got around to implementing the theoretical idea. The key benefit of such a platform is that it uses social capital to build trust in otherwise anonymous e-markets.

This aspect is of particular importance in emerging markets such as China and India. Given eBay's struggles in China, and it's not exactly lighting it up here in India, innovative models such as Mosoma will mesh well with the Asian mindset.

Now, if only we can get Broadband penetration to grow at 1/10th of our mobile growth rate (in India:-)

Weekend Trip to the Tech Triangle

This was certainly not my average weekend. Had the pleasure of accompanying Ajit and Savita on the road, talking to ISB alums and prospects on Saturday in Bangalore and Sunday in Chennai. It is great to see the passion for the institute continuing and hope that we can find more ways to connect with the alumni on an ongoing basis. How about everybody getting on Facebook?

Also, used the opportunity to give my 3G talk in what can only be categorized as "two different worlds." On Friday, Alok Goel and Jagjit Chawla (ISB 2007) invited me over to the Google's Infantry Road office in Bangalore. In between medicine balls, lava lamps and a lot of food, we discussed what it will take to get India's wireless information infrastructure up and running. On Monday, got the opportunity to revisiting the 3G issue in the hallowed, (what should be) rosewood paneled halls of The Hindu on Mount Road (Anna Salai) in Chennai. An interesting issue raised by Business Line joint editor Venu is the possibility of having dynamic allocation of 3G spectrum in a spot market. Apparently, this is at the heart of Google's recent proposal to the FCC. Have to dig into this.

Seems like everyone is eager to see what the group of ministers is going to come up with. Will chime in next week on that issue.

RB.

p.s. Note on the title of this blog. Have grown up hearing about the North Indian Golden Triangle (Jaipur, Agra and Delhi). Arguably, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai, while not prime tourist attractions, represent the new technology centric heart of modern India. I must admit the Chennai surprised me on the hipness quotient. The Leather Bar at the Park Hotel is swanky and we even got turned down at an independent authentic-looking Thai restaurant for a Sunday evening dinner. Hyderabad has some catching up to do.

On how to roll out 3G in India?

Got the chance to dig into the previous posts question and more in detail at this podcast interview recorded in the leafy chambers of Knowledge@Wharton in Philly. My colleague, Arun Sundararajan from NYU Stern and I touched upon (among other things) how the Indian mobile market is already competitive enough and if new operators are to be allowed, under what conditions it makes sense.

You have to listen to us for now till the transcripts come out.

Part II of this interview shall roll out in the next India K@W issue on June 29.

Part of the fun that beautiful afternoon was that we also got to meet Mukul Pandya, Knowledge@Wharton's editor in chief. In his humble way, he told us how his "network" approach has led to a subscriber base of close to 1M. That's quite something for an online knowledge publication that is about a decade old.

Should new operators (foreign or not) be allowed to bid for the upcoming 3G specturm auction?

Seems like the 3G auction scenario (not to mention the Maran family feuding) is heating up again. Back in the early part of September I made a presentation to the TRAI on the benefits of using an auction over a beauty contest in India. The DoTs recommendations have indicated that they will open up the auction to new operators such as Singtel and NTT DoCoMo. Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

I have to admit I can't find a strong justification for the DoT's case. The only argument I can think in favor of the decision is that players like NTT DoCoMO may bring proven 3G technology and applications quicker to the public.

Arguments against;

1. Will further slow the roll-out as new operators will not be in a position to leverage existing economies of scale and reach -- the back of my envelope says that each new tower costs $100,000 capex and the country needs at least 30,000 more of these -- lots of zeroes:-)
2. Competition already exists as reflected in lowest mobile prices on the planet
3. This will over-heat the auctions which is unlikey to be well-designed in any case -- think big time winner's curse:-(

Your thoughts?

So it goes...farewell Kurt Vonnegut

For all those war mongerers, a final word from the now late author, playwright and poet Kurt Vonnegut;

Requiem

When the last living thing

has died on account of us,

how poetical it would be

if Earth could say,

in a voice floating up

perhaps

from the floor

of the Grand Canyon,

“It is done.”

People did not like it here.

The NY Times carries an obituary

Custom Labels in Excel's X-Y Scatter Plots--Phew!

Courtesy of ISB MBA student Prem Pasupathy (many thanks Prem! I've struggled with this significantly....)

Dear Professor,

I did some research on assigning a custom data label to data points in XY Scatter Graph. What I found was that it is possible to change the default label given by xls (i.e. the x or y value) by manually clicking on each data point and typing in a new text. After doing this in Chart Options dialog, the “Automatic Text” option appears.

After searching for some add-ins in xls that can do this automatically, I came across the following site: http://pubs.logicalexpressions.com/Pub0009/LPMArticle.asp?ID=209#jon013).

============================================================================

Using Text in Cells for Data Labels

Excel lets you apply data labels to each point in a series, with options to use the Y values or the X labels in the data labels (pie charts allow a few other options as well). You can manually change each label, but what if you want to use a range of cells in your worksheet as data labels for your chart series? There are a couple useful and free Excel add-ins that can automatically label data points, using labels in a worksheet range:

1. John Walkenbach's Chart Tools

http://www.j-walk.com/ss/excel/files/charttools.htm

2. Rob Bovey's Chart Labeler

http://appspro.com/Utilities/ChartLabeler.htm

============================================================================

The above mentioned tools are free and can be plugged into xls as an add-in. I tried out both of them and found it very easy to assign the labels. I hope this information will be useful to you.

Thanks,

Prem Pasupathy

Class of 2007

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