May 14, 2007

Should new operators (foreign or not) be allowed to bid for the upcoming 3G specturm auction?

Seems like the 3G auction scenario (not to mention the Maran family feuding) is heating up again. Back in the early part of September I made a presentation to the TRAI on the benefits of using an auction over a beauty contest in India. The DoTs recommendations have indicated that they will open up the auction to new operators such as Singtel and NTT DoCoMo. Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

I have to admit I can't find a strong justification for the DoT's case. The only argument I can think in favor of the decision is that players like NTT DoCoMO may bring proven 3G technology and applications quicker to the public.

Arguments against;

1. Will further slow the roll-out as new operators will not be in a position to leverage existing economies of scale and reach -- the back of my envelope says that each new tower costs $100,000 capex and the country needs at least 30,000 more of these -- lots of zeroes:-)
2. Competition already exists as reflected in lowest mobile prices on the planet
3. This will over-heat the auctions which is unlikey to be well-designed in any case -- think big time winner's curse:-(

Your thoughts?